Women’s World Cup group scenarios: how each team advances to the round of 16

Martin Rogers

FOX Sports Insider

“I love the story,” US midfielder Megan Rapinoe told me at the 2012 London Olympics. “But that doesn’t stop me from wanting to change it.”

One part of history that the USA women’s team does not want to change is their record in the World Cup group stage. In each of the previous eight editions of the tournament, the Americans comfortably advanced to the knockout round; in fact, his worst overall finish has been a trio of bronze medals.

That puts you in elite company. Germany, which began their 2023 campaign with a resounding 6-0 thrashing of Morocco, are the only other side to have safely avoided early elimination on every occasion.

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Even with the event just days before, some nations already seem to be in an almost unassailable position in their group. Like the USA and the Netherlands in Pool E, Pool C heavyweights Spain and Japan appear to have little to worry about on the road to the respective round of 16.

Typical favourites, Germany and Brazil will feel good about their early efforts, and England, despite struggling on occasion before beating Haiti 1-0, can probably afford to look to the future as well.

Speaking of history, no host nation has ever exited in the group stage, which bodes well for Group B leaders Australia and New Zealand.

However, some of the hopefuls have been left with work to do. Olympic champion Canada did themselves a disservice by drawing their opener, and the same was true of France, who were controlled by Jamaica.

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As always, once we get to the final round of group matches, various permutations and scenarios come into play, and the conversation can turn to things like goal difference, head-to-heads, and even disciplinary records as tie-breakers.

For now though, it’s still relatively simple, with each team still holding their fate in their own hands, albeit with varying degrees of difficulty.

SCENARIOS OF THE WOMEN’S WORLD CUP

GROUP A

• New Zealand: advance to the round of 16 if they beat the Philippines AND Switzerland win/draw Norway.
• Philippines: Eliminated if lost to New Zealand AND Switzerland win/draw Norway.
• Switzerland: advance to the round of 16 if they beat Norway AND New Zealand win/draw against the Philippines.
• Norway: Eliminate if they lose to Switzerland AND New Zealand win/draw against the Philippines.

B GROUP

• Canada: Cannot secure advancement or be eliminated, regardless of results.
• Ireland: is eliminated if it loses against Canada.
• Australia: advance to the round of 16 if they beat Nigeria.
• Nigeria: Cannot secure advancement or be eliminated, regardless of results.

GROUP C

• Japan: advance to the round of 16 if they beat Costa Rica AND Spain win/draw Zambia.
• Costa Rica: Eliminated if they lose to Japan AND Spain win/draw against Zambia.
• Spain: advance to the round of 16 if they beat Zambia AND Japan win/draw Costa Rica.
• Zambia: Eliminated if they lose to Spain AND Japan win/draw against Costa Rica.

GROUP D

• England: advance to round of 16 if they beat Denmark AND Haiti win/draw China.
• Denmark: advance to the round of 16 if they beat England AND China win/draw Haiti.
• China: Eliminated if they lose to Haiti AND England win/draw Denmark.
• Haiti: Eliminated if they lose to China AND Denmark win/draw against England.

GROUP E

• USA: Advance to the Round of 16 if they beat the Netherlands AND Vietnam win/draw Portugal.
• Netherlands: Advance to Round of 16 if they beat USA and Portugal win/draw Vietnam.
• Portugal: Eliminated if they lose to Vietnam AND the USA win/draw against the Netherlands.
• Vietnam: Eliminated if they lose to Portugal AND the Netherlands win/draw against the USA.

GROUP F

• France: Cannot secure advancement or be eliminated, regardless of results.
• Brazil: advance to the round of 16 if they beat France.
• Panama: is eliminated if it loses against Jamaica.
• Jamaica: Cannot secure advancement or be eliminated, regardless of results.

GROUP G

• Sweden: advance to the round of 16 if they beat Italy AND South Africa win/draw Argentina.
• Italy: advance to the round of 16 if they beat Sweden AND Argentina win/draw against South Africa.
• South Africa: Eliminated if they lose to Argentina AND Italy win/draw against Sweden.
• Argentina: Eliminated if they lose to South Africa AND Sweden win/draw against Italy.

GROUP H

• Germany: advance to the round of 16 if they beat Colombia AND Morocco win/draw South Korea.
• Colombia: advance to the round of 16 if they beat Germany AND South Korea win/draw against Morocco.
• South Korea: Eliminated if they lose to Morocco AND Germany win/draw against Colombia.
• Morocco: Eliminated if they lose to South Korea AND Colombia win/draw against Germany.

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