Patrick Everson
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
Yes, the U.S. Women’s National Team needs to get a result in its third and final Group E match against Portugal. Team USA needs at least the one point that comes with a draw. However, the three points from a victory would be better still.
But if Women’s World Cup odds are any indication, bookmakers anticipate the Americans will come together in the wee hours Tuesday for a match on FOX and the FOX Sports app.
WynnBet trader and soccer aficionado Dominick DeBonis helps break down World Cup betting angles for this pivotal match.
Let’s dive into the betting preview for one of the most anticipated games of the tournament.
Not-So-Prime Time
For soccer fans and, more importantly (for these purposes) soccer bettors, Team USA’s first two games were timed quite well. The match against Vietnam resulted in a 3-0 victory and the match against the Netherlands ended in a 1-1 draw, but both were both played during prime time here in the States.
The USA-Netherlands match, in particular, really drew out the betting public. Will the late start impact betting?
“The U.S.-Netherlands match was the most-wagered-on game of the tournament, by a considerable margin,” DeBonis said. “So far, the pregame handle for the Portugal match has trended to come short of that, but not by a large amount. We would expect the start time to affect our in-game handle the most.”
Team USA is a healthy -357 favorite on the three-way moneyline, with Portugal a sizable +1075 underdog and draw at +444. What that means if you’re betting on the USWNT: It would take a $35.70 wager to win $10 for a total payout of $45.70.
On the flip side, a $10 bet on a Portugal upset would profit $107.50 for a $117.50 total payout.
But it would be a monster upset, and most U.S. bettors — particularly the casual/recreational types — seem just fine laying the favorite’s price on the old Red, White & Blue.
“We have seen a few sharp bets on the Portuguese side, on the three-way moneyline and our goal spreads. However, the bulk of the tickets continues to come in on the U.S.,” DeBonis said.
Will the United States beat Portugal?
Alexi Lalas and David Mosse preview the USWNT’s matchup against Portugal.
RELATED: Everything you need to know about USWNT-Portugal
American Alternatives
For those reticent to bet Team USA at -357, there’s no shortage of other ways to back the USWNT, thanks to a robust prop bet market. DeBonis pointed to Team USA goalscorer props — player will/will not score, first goalscorer/last goalscorer, etc. — as popular plays.
“The starting lineup was exactly the same for the U.S. in the first two group-stage games,” he said. “Bettors have latched on to that by playing some goalscorer props on those players, specifically Alex Morgan, who’s probably the most famous player and hasn’t scored yet.”
Indeed, it would seem Morgan is due. She’s one of the most prolific scorers in USWNT history, with 121 career goals. Morgan is -115 to score at any point against Portugal, meaning it takes only an $11.50 wager to profit $10, for a $21.50 total payout.
For a better payout, you could take Morgan at +350 to score the match’s first goal or +350 to score the match’s final goal. Granted, there’s a reason the odds are longer and that’s because it’s seen as less likely to happen. But Morgan is the favorite at WynnBet in both the first-goal and last-goal markets.
Plus, as DeBonis rightly noted, scoring is up in this tournament over the past few days after a very slow start. That might merit a play on the total for USA-Portugal, which is 2.5 goals. The Over is a -117 favorite (bet $10 to win $18.55 total) and Under a -109 underdog (bet $10 to win $19.17 total).
“The past few days have seen teams settle in and goals start to come,” DeBonis said. “The U.S. will have plenty of chances, and I would expect the Over to be a popular parlay leg.”
WynnBet also has a tournament-long prop bet specific to Team USA: top World Cup goalscorer. Sophia Smith, already with two goals, is the -200 favorite to lead the USWNT. Lindsey Horan, who had the lone U.S. goal against Netherlands, is the +150 choice.
If you think Morgan is indeed due to break out through the rest of this tournament, you can wager on her as the +1000 third choice. That’s kind of juicy, with a $10 bet potentially profiting $100.
“We plan on offering top U.S. goalscorer as long as the team is alive. We’ve attracted a surprising amount of interest on it,” DeBonis said.
The Big Picture
No question, for likely all U.S. sportsbooks, the USWNT is the largest liability in odds to win the World Cup. But as the tourney unfolds, other teams are starting to get attention in World Cup futures odds.
“Across the tournament in general, the strong performances of Colombia and Sweden in the first two games for each have led bettors to take some shots at those squads on the outright (championship),” DeBonis said.
Sweden fended off South Africa 2-1 in its Group G opener, then punished Italy 5-0. Colombia topped South Korea 2-0 in its Group H opener. Then on Sunday, the Colombian side – as a hefty +900 underdog – pulled off a stunning 2-1 upset of -390 favorite Germany.
Sweden is now +2000 and Colombia +5000 to win the tournament. And despite the surprising loss, Germany is still the +550 third choice to lift the trophy, behind the U.S. (+255) and Spain (+375).
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas
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